Skype seems slowly to recover from yesterdays blackout.

However, it doesn’t look to me as if they’ve actually solved the problem. I assume they’ve just added a workaround (e.g. maybe using DNS to locate good servers?) that help recovering. At least when enough people download the new version.

If you look at the graphs at Njanjan.to and 85qm.de, then they still look far from healthy.

I’m not talking about the mere numbers - Skype reports about 3 Million users connected, which would mean 1 out of 3 regular users is back. But I’m talking about the shape of the curve. During regular operations, the curve used to be smooth. Which is easy to explain: by some million users going online and offline indepentenly, it all smoothens out. The curve goes up when people start working in a densely populated area and goes down when they go to bed. But if you look at the graphs for the past few hours parts of the Skype P2P network still appear to get disconnected and reconnected. They cerainly didn’t flip a switch and people could connect again. The service still appears to be going up and down.

To me, that indicates that they actually didn’t solve the problem, but just found a way to make the problems not take down the whole network, while parts still drop off now and then.

Just my guesses, though. And Skype will not tell the truth either, you bet. (You might want to skim over the presentation “Silver Needle In The Skype” [PDF], about the inner workings of Skype, their obfuscation technologies and how far they go at hiding what their software is actually doing)

P.S. I’ve read in a blog that Skype might right now only allow one connection per IP. That would even more support the rumors that they’re actually trying to defend against an attack on their network (and using the IP limit to slow down the attacks?)

P.P.S. Another interesting note: the Skype stats on the Skype website report 5.5 Million connected users - my Skype client reports 3.7 Million. Which number is correct?